视点 | IMI研究员熊园《环球时报》刊文：人民币从0到1的质变

4月7日，IMI研究员熊园于《环球时报》刊文，就IMF首次披露的人民币外汇储备状况进行评论。

根据IMF的消息，截至2016年第四季度，人民币外汇储备达845.1亿美元，占全球外汇储备产的1.07%。熊园认为这一数据披露对人民币有三方面利好。首先，这意味着人民币国际化的一次突破。人民币成为COFER的第八大货币，表明其正在被他国家接受成为储备货币。其次，这一占比的数据将成为人民币国际化过程的重要考评指标。我们可从纵向横向两方面评估人民币国际化的进程。第三，这一指标可以成为未来人民币国际化的目标之一。

国际储备货币可被视为货币国际化的终极目标。随着中国经济的崛起，人民币在国际市场的需求迅速增加，我国货币当局也借此采取大量措施推动人民币国际化的进程。同样，一个强力的人民币对于国家在国际舞台上的地位也至关重要，我国政府也应当关注人民币外汇储备的进展。

以下为文章全文：

At the end of March, the IMF for the first time revealed the yuan's share of allocated global foreign exchange reserves. By the end of the last quarter of 2016, yuan-denominated holdings hit $84.51 billion, accounting for 1.07 percent of global foreign currency reserves, per IMF data, which gives the yuan a lending hand in making a fundamental change from zero to one. This is once again another IMF endorsement for the yuan's global position, which boosts the Chinese currency's international recognition yet indicates substantial room for the yuan to function as a global reserve currency and that the yuan a long way to go to be internationalized.

In September 2015, China started reporting quarterly statistics of its official breakdown of foreign currency reserves to the IMF on a volunteer basis. After the yuan's official inclusion into the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket on October 1, 2016, the Washington-based fund began separately identifying yuan-denominated assets in its currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves (COFER) to reflect the yuan's share of global foreign exchange reserves.The data announcement has three positive impacts for the Chinese currency.

First, the yuan's internationalization has made a breakthrough.The yuan has become the eighth currency separately identified in the IMF's COFER data, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc. This establishes the yuan's role as a reserve currency, which means that the yuan is being gradually recognized and accepted as a reserve currency by other countries and regions.

Second, the announcement has added an important indicator to the yuan's internationalization. According to IMF tradition, the COFER data is published at the end of every quarter. The IMF's identification of the yuan in the COFER database reveals the absolute value of yuan-denominated holdings as well as the yuan's share of global official forex reserves, enabling a comparison both horizontally and vertically of the yuan's functioning as a reserve currency and thus clearly evaluating the progress of yuan internationalization.

Third, the identification sets a clear goal for the yuan to be globalized.Yuan assets only represent 1 percent of world forex reserves, which doesn't match China's position as the world's second largest economy and indicates considerable room for improvement. Between 2014 and 2016, the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and pound sterling accounted for roughly 64 percent, 20 percent, 4 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in global forex reserves, according to the IMF data. This suggests that it's a practical goal for the yuan to catch up with the Japanese yen and pound sterling.

Serving as a reserve currency is one of the three main functions of an international currency. It can be said that it is the ultimate goal for a currency to be internationalized. The yuan is now being presented with the opportunity to become a reserve currency. International forex reserves are currently composed of currencies, gold and SDR, with the dollar taking the dominant role. However, the fact that the Asian financial crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis, European sovereign debt crisis and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to continual turbulence in the global economy makes the case for an urgent change of the international reserve currency framework. Along with a conspicuous rise in China's economic power and the overall national strength, there's a growing demand for the yuan, which makes it increasingly urgent to push the yuan to be a global reserve currency. Additionally, China has in recent years taken a raft of measures to push for the internationalization of the yuan and has made substantial progress: a global network providing 24-hour yuan clearing capabilities has been established covering major financial hubs in Asia, Europe, Oceania and North America; direct convertibility has been launched between the yuan and several major currencies such as the euro, sterling pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc; China has signed currency swap agreements with many countries and regions; and the yuan has been added into the IMF's SDR basket.

As such, a strong yuan currency is indispensable for the country to become a decisive power in the world. It is advised that policymakers should have an eye to the future, steadily push forward with the yuan's internationalization and focus on enhancing the yuan's reserve capabilities. This means China should take the opportunity of the yuan's SDR inclusion, increasing communication and collaboration with other central banks and further extending currency swap arrangements to more countries and regions. Also, the country is expected to borrow strength from the Belt and Road initiative, elevating the openness of its domestic bond market, enriching the portfolio of yuan-denominated products, and expanding the offshore yuan bond market. In this regard, it is an urgent priority to work out plans to put a bond connect in place between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. It also needs to be pointed out that the country should seek a balance between capital account opening, yuan internationalization and financial safety, avoiding backward steps yet getting ready to apply the brakes when needed.

编辑  齐涵博 邵昊敏

来源  熊园观察（微信公众号）

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